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Investec Epsom Derby 2009

Investec Epsom Derby 2009 (Group 1)
15:45 Epsom, Saturday 6 June2009
1m4f10y, Good-Good to firm in places

No Form Horse Trainer
1 14-1 Age Of Aquarius A P O'Brien
2 21-31 Black Bear Island A P O'Brien
3 0121-8 Crowded House B J Meehan
4 4-113 Debussy J H M Gosden
5 11-11 Fame And Glory A P O'Brien
6 312-3 Gan Amhras J S Bolger
7 3541-41 Golden Sword A P O'Brien
8 211-5 Kite Wood Saeed Suroor
9 2130-2 Masterofthehorse A P O'Brien
10 21-2 Montaff M R Channon
11 117-4 Rip Van Winkle A P O'Brien
12 411-1 Sea The Stars J M Oxx
13 21 South Easter W J Haggas

In 1780 Edward Smith Stanley, the 12th Earl of Derby, organised a race for himself and his friends to race their three year old fillies over one and a half miles. He named this race after the Oaks in his estate. This was so successful that the following year they added a new race for colts and fillies. This race was over one mile but the distance was increased to a mile and a half in 1784. This is the race we know as the Derby today. It is a race restricted to three year old full colts and fillies.

As with the Grand National I will use race profiling to hopefully find the winner of the 2009 Epsom Derby. This involves analysing the profile of previous winners of the race and using this information to find the winner.

Recent Form

Eight of the last ten winners won last time out with only Sir Percy on 2006 and New Approach last year being different, however, both these horses finished second to above average 2000 Guineas winners.

Number Of Runs

Five of the last six winners had just one race before the Derby in their three year old season prior to the Derby. Also, only Benny The Dip in 1997 and New Approach last year had more than five career starts before lining up for the Derby since Erhaab won in 1993. Runners with three or more wins have won twelve of the last twenty races.

Key Races

Horses that have won the Dante Stakes, the Derristown Stud Derby Trial and the Lingfield Derby Trial have to be respected.

Aidan O'Brien

Aidan O'Brien has not won the Derby for seven years which is a long time for a trainer with his record in Group races, however, with six of the top eleven in the betting all his entries have to be respected.

Breeding

Irish bred horses have won eight of the last eleven races, five of sixteen runners in 2008 were Irish bred and finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 12th.

Price

The Derby is very much a market driven race with horses priced 16/1 or bigger having a terrible record. The top three in the betting have provided thirteen of the last twenty winners while the top six in the betting have provided nineteen of the winners. Only four of the last ten favourites have won, however, only one horse has won at a bigger price than 7/1 in the last eleven years, High Rise at 20/1 in 1998.

Summary

Positives Negatives
Irish bred Horses priced 16/1 or greater.
Last time out winners  
Horses raced no more than 5 times  
Winners of the Dante Stakes, Derristown Derby Trial and Lingfield Derby Trial  
Horses who have had only 1 race as a 3 year old prior to the Derby.  


Conclusion

The 2000 Guineas winner, Sea The Stars, fits many of the key trends in that he won last time out and has had only one run this season. He also won over one mile as a two year old. In addition, the 2000 Guineas can produce Derby winners.

The main question mark is whether he will stay the distance. The female side of his pedigree says yes with his mother, Urban Sea, winning the Arc and producing two horses that were placed in the Oaks and two Group 1 winners in Black Sam Bellamy and Derby winner Galileo.

The doubts are because of his father, Cape Cross, who was a miler and many of his best progeny were best around that distance, However, he has sired an Oaks winner in the wonderful Ouija Board.

There are concerns about the distance but jockey Mick Kinane thinks he will stay and in the forecast good ground he is my selection to win the Derby. Another plus for me is I am a big fan of the trainer John Oxx.

Selection : 12 Sea The Stars

The Result

1st 12 Sea The Stars (IRE) 11-4
2nd 5 Fame And Glory 9-4 F
3rd 9 Masterofthehorse (IRE) 16-1

Tote Win 3.40
Pl 1.50, 1.50, 5.00
EX 11.20
SF 8.80
Winning Trainer J M Oxx
Winning Jockey M J Kinane
Distances 1 3/4l, nk
Runners 12 ran
Non runners 13

 

 

 

 

 

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