Betting System Examples
Embarking on the world of betting can be both exciting and challenging. Many individuals seek an edge, a way to tilt the odds in their favour, and this often leads them to explore various betting systems. This article will introduce you to several well-known betting systems, outlining their core principles and how they are typically applied.
It is crucial to understand from the outset that these systems are presented for informational purposes only. They are not a guarantee of success and have not been tested or endorsed by us. The inherent randomness and unpredictability of gambling mean that no system can consistently beat the house in the long run.1
Before you consider using any of these strategies with real money, we strongly advise you to "paper test" them. This involves tracking your bets and outcomes on paper or in a spreadsheet without any financial risk. This practice allows you to see how a system performs over an extended period and helps you understand its potential pitfalls and the emotional discipline required. Remember, responsible gambling is the most important strategy of all.
The Specific Strategy (also known as Each-way Thief)
The strategy is based on high value, each-way bets. We are looking to back horses which are between 6/1 and 10/1. Using the guidelines below around 80-90% of the chosen horses should at least place, which at a fifth of the odds will show small profits. However, experience has taught us that approximately 1 in 5 of these horses will actually win, it is these win bets, (at prices up to 10/1), that will see our profits spiral. Effectively, using this method you will be backing on a week-to-week basis confident in the knowledge that most of the time your money will be returned, plus a small profit for your trouble, patiently waiting for the big price winners we all hope for. The Specific Strategy does not incur any long losing runs. Here is how the plan operates.
Firstly, we confine our betting to certain types of races, these being non-handicap races with eight, or sometimes nine runners. During the jumps season, chases are preferable to hurdles, but don't exclude hurdles altogether as the plan is still profitable with these types of races. During the flat season do not ever use two-year-old races or sprints (5-6 furlongs). This may seem to leave us very little to play with, but there will still be quite a few races of interest to us each week.
The next thing we look at in the suitable races, is the betting. You can use the morning forecasts in the papers, or wait for the markets to open proper. Look for races which the bookmakers rate as a 'two horse race', i.e. the first two in the betting should be very shortly priced, usually one will be odds-on and the second horse around 7/4 to 2/1
Find a race that fulfills all the criteria above and you have a bet!
The horse to back each-way will be the third one in the betting. This will usually be 6/1 or better in races with a two-horse book. This will be the horse that the form experts rate as the third best in the race. Because the odds set by the bookmakers represent each horses chances of winning (not placing), backing the third best horse each-way is the finest value bet you can get in racing. It really is a loophole in the bookmakers way of working. So much so that in races of the kind the strategy is concerned with, the on-course bookmakers are unlikely to accept each-way bets like these. They realise the danger of such bets. The off-course bookmaking chains have to have a general policy and cannot adjust their betting practices for specific races.
Now two notes of caution:
Firstly, when you are selecting the "third" horse to back in races with a two-horse book, always stick to using the third horse in the betting. Don't be tempted to try to pick a bet from the remaining runners. A hard and fast selection method that does not allow room for emotions, hunches or personal judgement will always prove most profitable in the long run.
Secondly, in eight runner races be careful that there are no withdrawals. In eight runner races a place counts as first, second or third, but if there is a withdrawal and less than eight horses start, then only first and second will count as places. This is something to avoid.
Cracking The Placepot
Introduction
The Placepot is without doubt the best value bet in gambling. Just a £1.00 bet can return dividends in excess of several hundred pounds! To win the Placepot you have to select a horse to be placed in each of the first six races at a meeting. As well as being great value it is an excellent 'fun' bet as it gives you an interest in a large number of races for just a small investment. Placepots are run by the Tote, but most high street bookmakers will now accept Placepot bets. Whether you bet most days or just on Saturdays, a Placepot bet is a smart investment to make!
Obviously finding a horse to place in six consecutive races is not easy. Not all Placepots are in the £500+ region (although from time to time returns can be in four figures!), but compared with other types of race betting the "level-stakes" returns on a week to week basis are huge.
The Method
Firstly, we must decide which meeting to use each day. It is best to stick to just one meeting per day. If there is a choice of meetings then it is usually best not to use the main meeting as this quite often contains races with big, competitive fields, and it makes our job of finding horses to place more difficult. Conversely, the lowest grade meeting of the day, particularly in the flat season, also has its problems. The horses here are often ridden by the poorest standard of jockeys which makes analysis hard. So when presented with a
choice of meetings pick the second biggest meeting of the day to work on. If you are uncertain which one this is, then add together the prize values of each race at each meeting. The one with the second highest total will be the one to use.
Having selected our meeting, we now need to make our selections.
To capture the Placepot we are going to use a Placepot perm. This allows us to pick more than one horse in each race. Most bookmakers now supply Placepot perm slips which make entering easier.
To win the pot we need to select a placed horse in each race. Obviously if we had covered say, three horses in every race then our chances are greatly improved. Unfortunately, it's not that easy! The more horses we cover in each race, the more costly our bet. To cover three in each of the six races would need 729 bets, i.e. 729 times our stake. Too much.
The perm we use in this plan uses 36 lines, at 25p unit stake the bet costs just £9.00. It consists of a single selection in two of the races, two selections in another two races, and three selections in the remaining two races.
1x1x2x2x3x3 = 36 bets.
Now to make our selections for the perm. If you are an experienced student Of form you can add your own knowledge to the selection process, but here we are going to base our selections on S.P. forecasts. Using the morning betting forecasts is a very reliable selection method to use with this plan. Here's what to do:
1. Look at the S.P. forecasts for the six races concerned. Look for the two races with the shortest priced favourites. These will be (hopefully) the most reliable favourites of the day, and even if they don't win, they should place. These act as our "single" entries in the perm.
2. Select the two races with the biggest fields, they are usually big handicap races, and are always the hardest to select winners in. Take the first three horses in the betting forecast in each of these races, they will be our "three" selections in the perm.
3. Obviously in the remaining two races, we use the first two in the betting forecast as our "two" selection elements in the perm.
We now have all the elements for our perm. Don't be fooled into thinking that because the selection method is quick and easy, it is ineffective. If you use it daily you should scoop the Placepot at least once a week.
One last note about which paper to use. I recommend using one of the specialist racing papers as their S.P. forecasts tend to be more accurate, but whichever you use, keep to the same one each day.
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Outstanding Outsiders
This formula is designed to locate the best value betting proposition of any racing day, i.e. a long priced horse with a realistic chance of winning.
Clearly, handicaps are the races in which a plan based on outsiders is most likely to succeed They are more open than other kinds of races and winners and placed horses start at good odds The difficulty of course is to locate viable bets at long prices when the basis Of any good system must be form. Well it is my belief that a combination of factors - one statistical and one form related, can in fact be used to pick out an outsider with a real chance each day.
As far as statistics are concerned, a survey over a three year period demonstrated beyond all doubt that in fiat handicaps horses near the top of the weights hold the best chance of success. Class tells in racing, so they say and this is borne out by results in handicaps just as much as in other types of event.
Here are the figures which underline the point:
48% of the winners of all flat handicaps are one of the top four in the weights.
62% Of all winners come from the top six in the weights.
These percentages point to trends in the overall pattern of results that are just too pronounced to ignore. Whilst runners can and do come from lower down in the handicap, statistically they are most likely to stem from the group which heads the weights. As for form without which no system can hope to succeed, even one based on outsiders, it is a fact that many horses with sound win and placed form in recent runs do perform well, even though the market gives them only a slender chance of success. For example any horse good enough to reach the first four in each of it's last three races must have some chance of reaching a place again and may even win, despite whatever odds are fixed by the betting ring.
The fundamental idea being the Outstanding Outsiders formula is to combine these
high-weight and form factors in order to pick out a horse at long odds that at the very least has a definite chance of running into a place.
The System
In the first instance it is necessary to analyse each handicap on the days cards from the point of view of weight. This is done by applying a sliding scale based on the number of runners in a race. It is logical that in a really big field we should examine a wider range of high weighted horses in a race with fewer runners. Handicaps of ten or less contestants are ignored because starting prices are unlikely to be long enough for system purposes.
The scale is as follows:
More than 15 runners - consider the first six in the weights
13 or 14 runners - consider the first five in the weights
11 or 12 runners - consider the first four in the weights
Using this scale for every handicap race on any given day, list any horse which ran first, second, third or fourth in each of its last three public meetings and which figures in the specified weight range for the number of runners in it's race (as above).
Any horse which fulfils the criteria is an OUTSTANDING OUTSIDER. Most days you will have more than one possibility. If you prefer to just back one horse each day then select the Outstanding Outsider with the biggest forecast odds.
The 500/1 Plan
Introduction
The purpose of this plan is to consistently locate winning fourfold accumulators. The underlying aim is to locate winning four-folds with odds in excess of 500/1 - hence the name THE 500/1 PLAN. The accumulators this plan produces are not always quite as profitable as 500/1 , but if you use the plan correctly, the minimum returns will be at least 250/1. This plan really is that profitable!
You cannot expect the 500/1 plan to be always winning, but at the kind of odds you'll get on winning days, you need only the occasional success to stay well and truly in profit Having said this, if you apply the principles of the plan with care, you may be surprised at just how consistent it can be.
You will not need a large bank of money to bet with to operate this plan, you will only be placing comparatively small stakes each day you decide to bet. Neither will you need to use any expensive staking plans, (increasing stakes after losing days etc.), You can decide initially what unit stake you can afford and stick to that unit stake until your winnings allow you to increase it. One word of caution, don't be too ambitious when deciding what unit to use at the beginning. Make sure you can afford to suffer a few losing days before you start getting the big returns. There is nothing to say that one of your first fourfolds wont win and in such a case you will be off to a flying start and you should then always have sufficient funds to finance your betting, but "sods law" dictates that if you budget your funds to allow you to withstand an initial
losing run of ten days, then the first successful accumulator you select will be on the eleventh!
For the purposes of this article, I have used a unit stake of £1.00. This would entail having to bet £6.OO per day - you'll understand why later. Obviously you can adjust the unit stake to suit your own circumstances
One final point, although there is no reason why this plan can't be used on any racing day, it is best to limit it to days when there are plenty of races to choose from, Fridays, Saturdays, Bank Holidays etc.
The 500/1 Plan
A fourfold accumulator usually entails selecting one horse to win in each of four separate races. All four horses chosen have to win, if not then the bet is lost.
The odds on correctly selecting four winners from four races are huge. Even the most knowledgeable racing enthusiast would find it impossible to select four straight winners with any regularity. Even if you just picked four odds-on favourites, it would be a rare day that all four came home in front - only about 50-60% of odds-on actually win!
Using reasonable selection methods, most gamblers should be able to pick two or even three winners from four races from time to time, but it is getting a fourth winner that is the problem. How many times have you said 'just one horse let me down'?
Each element of an accumulator bet increases the risk of that bet losing greatly, but this risk can be significantly reduced if we select more than one runner in each element of the bet.
Imagine if instead of just one horse in each race you selected two or three. If in each element of your accumulator any one of three horses you selected could win, then even if you made your selections by sticking a pin in the race card and thus produced three runners in each of four races, you would have a reasonable chance of winning.
Unfortunately, as you have no doubt realised, it is more than a little impractical to actually bet on any one of three horses winning in each part of a fourfold, The number of bets needed to cover all the possible winning combinations would be much too great to make this a viable possibility (81 bets actually), but I am sure you can see the principle of how increasing your selections in each element of a combination, greatly reduces the risks of your bet losing.
Although we may not be able to make multiple selections in every part of an accumulator, we can make more than one choice in at least some of the elements. Good selection methods will help us to reduce the need for too many selections. The principle of the plan is that we combine thoughtful, informed selections with some multiple options, working together this will greatly increase our chances of winning.
There are a great many different combinations of bets we can use, e.g. two selections in each of the four races, this would require a total of 16 different bets (still a little too many), or maybe just selecting just one runner in each of the first three races combined with five options in the last race, this would only need 5 different bets to be placed, but it isn't the most reasoned way of doing things.
The format I suggest requires placing just 6 different bets, but I feel that this format provides the right balance between intelligent selection methods and the use of multiple options.
This is what I propose doing:
In two of the races we make just one selection. In the third race we pick two horses and in the remaining race we pick three runners. This requires just six different bets. We will need to be careful with our selecting, especially in the first two elements where we have no margin for error, but I feel this is the right combination to use all things considered,
One of the main advantages of using this combination is the scope it gives us for increasing the accumulated odds of the bet. To explain further, although we need to stick to short priced “certainties" in the two elements of the bet where we can only make one selection, the luxury of being able to pick two and more so three horses in a field allows us to more adventurous with our selections. For the 'three horse race' we can choose a wide open race and select three runners at longer prices. This really helps to multiply the returns.
Horse Selection
As we have said, even though this plan does give us something of a margin of error, we still have to be very careful when making our selections. Methods of selecting horses are many and varied. In all my time of studying racing, I have yet to see a method of selecting winners that was 100% consistent. I know some
very good methods of increasing your chances, but it is impossible for me to say to you do x, y and z and you are guaranteed winners.
What I can do is pass on to you a few guidelines that I use when looking for winners. The first pieces of advice are particularly aimed at locating the single horses for elements 1 and 2, after which I have a couple of suggestions to help you when looking for the two and three horse combinations.
1. Use a race at a meeting of reasonable quality. You do not necessarily have to use the major meeting of the day, but the prize value of the race you use should be sufficient to ensure that the horses entered are there to make a genuine effort to win, (E3,OOO upwards minimum).
2. Ensure that all the runners in the race you use have a reasonable amount of form behind them. They should have had at least two races in the present season.
3. Look for favourites that are between 1.5 and 2 points clear of the next horse in the betting, e.g. if the favourite is 6/4, then the next horse in the betting should be at least 3/1, preferably around 7/2.
4. Don't put too much faith in tipsters unless you know from your own experience which tipsters to trust. Having said this, if the horse you are considering is hardly being tipped by any of the tipsters, there is probably a good reason.
5. Try to avoid races which are any of the following; specifically for amateurs, lady jockeys or apprentices, claimers or sellers, maiden races.
6. Locating the race to use for the third element of our bet can be awkward. Although it may seem an easier job to find a winner when we are picking two horses in the same race, the problem we have is that we realistically need to find horses around 5/2 or 6/1 if we want to get the really good returns.
To help you find a supply of winners around these prices here is probably one of the best selection hints I've ever given. Look for a horse in a race that is forecast to be about the correct odds we're looking for, its form will quite often be fair to indifferent, (plenty of thirds, fourths etc but few firsts),
look at this horse's racing history notes, you will only find these in proper racing papers, If the horse's prior results were in gained better classes of races than the one it is about to run in then this horse's chances might well be better than its odds suggest Find a horse like this and cover it along with a shorter priced horse in that race, this will act as something of an insurance policy. You will be surprised at just how often a horse dropping in class comes home at a good price!
7. When looking for a race for the fourth element where we pick three horses, what I tend to do is look for a handicap with between 8 and 12 runners in the field and where the betting forecast suggests that the race is quite open. The forecast favourite should be about 4/1+. Pick the favourite plus two others from the top half of the forecast to use. In a handicap race like this it is a bit of a lottery selecting the winner, but by covering three runners in the way we are doing the odds will be in your favour.
The Best Of The Press Form Plan
Facts and figures are important to any serious follower of racing. For the system operator they are absolutely essential. Fortunately we have never had it so good in terms of the racing coverage offered regularly by the national press. Detailed race cards with extensive form analysis and skillfully compiled betting forecasts, course statistics plus selections by acknowledged experts are a feature of the sporting pages of every popular newspaper.
Nowadays the racing fan is given so much help that winning might seem a relatively simple task. However, it is not simple, far from it. Even with the
embarrassment of riches to be found in the racing pages. the wheat still has to be sorted from the chaff. The problem of finding enough winners to yield a profit over a reasonable period of time defeats most of us.
One possible answer is to look very closely at the tips given by the racing correspondents retained by the various newspapers. They are professionals; they travel regularly to race meetings and they are paid to make a thorough study of every aspect of form. A method of betting based on their selections ought to offer a reasonably trouble-free road to success. In fact, the typical correspondent who makes a selection in every race manages an overall ratio Of approximately one winner to three losers. At first sight this may not seem too
satisfactory. It is a worse average, for instance, than the general percentage of winning favourites. It must be remembered, however, that the newspaper tipster's successes include a spread of winners at all prices up to the occasional 20—1 outsider. The fact that the strike rate of winning press selections does not depend on strings of horses at short prices prompts me to suggest that in terms Of potential profit they are probably the best of all readily available betting propositions.
Some backers have a favourite tipster whose selections they follow regularly. Almost everyone has a clear preference for one correspondent above all others, even if they don't always blindly follow the advice given. The BEST OF THE PRESS system recommends concentrating on the tips of one's preferred newspaper pundit.
The idea, however, is not to back a selection in every race but to single out only those runners which have the highest statistical chance of winning.
One way of doing this is to examine closely the performance figures of each horse your tipster chooses. Performance figures are the record Of a horse's placings on its last three outings which precedes the name of each runner on the standard race card. It is a well-known fact that some three-figure combinations produce a far greater overall percentage of winners than others. Moreover, the
best of them show a remarkably high level of consistent success. My figures, based on many years Of research for both flat and jumps, and equally valid in handicaps and non-handicaps, are set out below. Note that there arc also form figures for two-year-olds and other lightly rated animals.
The operating instructions for the BEST OF THE PRESS plan are very simple and require only a few minutes' work each day.
Examine every selection of your chosen tipster and pick out only those which have recorded one of the above performance combinations in their most recent outings. In this way you locate up to two or three horses per day that have a double plus factor in their favour. They must be regarded as bets of the highest quality.
Nothing guarantees a profit in racing but this system has real potential for consistent success. In summer or winter you are automatically on some of the best bets your newspaper has to offer.
Moreover, the selective process need not end there. The discerning backers who use their own judgement to pick and choose may be able to pinpoint one horse a day which comes close to being the perfect wager.
The Speciality System
Specialisation pays or so they say. Given the right temperament, this probably applies as much to betting matters as to any other sphere of activity and this plan is to help you win bets on two-year-olds. Certainly one could do a lot worse than to concentrate on this particular aspect of the racing scene for the majority of bets. This is a great deal more sensible than jumping around from one expedient to another, clutching at every straw in the wind, always in search of the elusive big win that so seldom materialises.
To my mind two-year-olds are an excellent medium for such an approach. Competing regularly over uniform sprint distances, juveniles run to form to a remarkable degree. They are fresh and bring to their racing a zest that is all too often lacking in older horses, many of which are definitely soured by over-exposure. By contrast, consistency is the hallmark of two-year-old racing.
If you can be content with small but regular profits from fancied runners at the less spectacular end of the odds range, then it might well suit you to study the youngsters very closely. By going about it in the right way there is every chance that you could enjoy a successful season's betting with a sound capital gain at the end of the campaign to reward you for your efforts.
Two-year-olds perform within predictable limits to such an extent that a few simple tests can be used to pinpoint the best potential bets in a most effective way.
First, it is desirable that any two-year-old which carries a backer's money should have won or been placed second on its previous run. Obviously in the course of a season's racing there are plenty of examples of youngsters that were third, fourth or unplaced last time out that go on to win their next race. On the other hand, statistics show quite clearly that winners and seconds are quite outstanding.
Here are the results of a survey for three full seasons:
When it is considered that first and seconds in the nature of things are vastly outnumbered by the others, then it is apparent that 41 is a very good percentage indeed. Clearly they offer a very high statistical chance of success.
Needless to say, there are sound reasons for this excellent strike rate. Two-year-olds do reproduce their form more consistently than any other type of horse. If a youngster wins or finishes close up in a race, then unless it is asked to rise sharply in class there is every chance that it will be there or thereabouts in its next.
Over the same three-year period it was found that the win frequency for favourites in two-year-old non-handicaps (nursery handicaps were excluded because of their highly competitive nature) was 38.2 per cent and for second favourites 21.3 per cent.
Note that both figures are adjusted to correct the discrepancy arising from the duplication which occurs when there are joint favourites or joint second favourites.
A combined percentage for winning first and second favourites of nearly 60 is so impressive that it seems pointless to look beyond it for the second rule of two-year-old betting. You are strongly advised to focus your attention only on the likely favourites: that is, the first two in the betting forecast of a reliable sporting or daily paper.
A two-year-old, like any other thoroughbred, needs to be fully fit to do itself justice on the racecourse, However, it is standard practice among all good trainers to give their charges a periodic rest. Horses are not machines; they cannot be kept at their racing best indefinitely without a break. In this respect they are no different to human beings who go to work regularly and need a holiday from time to time in order to recharge their batteries. The surest sign that a horse has been 'let down' is a prolonged period of absence from actual competition. When it does eventually return to racing after a lay-off, it may have done a good deal of work at home but there is no substitute for a gallop under racing conditions to bring a horse right up to its absolute peak.
Therefore the punter is advised to back only two-year-olds which are running within one month of their previous public outing. This is a guarantee of a horse's racing fitness and enables one to be fairly certain that no complications have developed regarding general physical well-being which might detract from its ability to reproduce its form. The third rule goes a long way to giving grounds for confidence that a horse is being backed which is fully fit and well.
The three conditions for betting in two-year-old non-handicaps may be summarised as follows:
I Only back horses which finished first or second last time out(just second in races for maidens at starting).
2 Concentrate on the first two in the betting forecast of the newspaper used for racing purposes.
3 In no circumstances back any two-year-old which has not run in public for over a month (say, 30 days).
These are rules from which no one should deviate. They will produce a short list of possibles from which to make one or more selections each racing day. The final stage in the process is left to the backer. One may feel confident enough to rely on personal reading of form or class. One may prefer to make use of the
undoubted expertise of newspaper correspondents to arrive at a final choice.
However, there is one guide which requires special attention. I refer to the comparative time test.
Two-year-old racing is peculiarly well suited to a close study of comparative times. Except for a minority of mile events, all juvenile races are decided over sprint distances, and it is in sprints that time is of most value as an aid to finding winners. Riding tactics have little impact on calculations in races that are usually run flat out from start to finish. A two-yeat-old capable of recording a fast time should always be watched very closely.
Most readers will be familiar with the concept Of comparative times by which each recorded race time can be classed as faster or slower than the standard for course and distance. The specialist racing press show this comparison in the following way:.
The vital information is contained in the brackets. Here is shown the number of seconds and tenths of a second the winner was faster (—) or slower (+) than the standard. In this way the comparative value of performances on the clock can be readily assessed even though races were run over different courses and over different distances.
Clearly from this set of figures, the horse which won or finished close up second in the Goodwood race over five furlongs where the standard was bettered by 0.20 seconds would be an obvious first choice.
There is one problem with comparative times. Races are run on different going. Obviously it is much easier to run a fast time on firm or good ground than on soft or heavy. In assessing times, therefore, some experience is needed in making an appropriate allowance for ground conditions but the time test is so valuable in evaluating two-year-old form that the effort to acquire expertise in
this area is well worth making.
Looking closely at the winning times recorded by older horses on the same card is one of the best ways to evaluate the merit of a two-year-old's performance against the background of the prevailing ground conditions. If a juvenile winner or a good second did a comparative time which is close to, or even better than, the best time of the day set by an older horse, this is clearly a very sound performance. Or is the two-year-old race faster or slower against the standard than most other times recorded that afternoon? How does the two-year-old compare with a good handicapper or a selling plater, Or even with a Group race winner running on the same card.
When all the racing appears very ordinary, time may be the only satisfactory key to making an accurate assessment of a piece of juvenile form. And here do not forget the draw. Were the two-year-old winner and the runner-up well drawn or badly drawn in a big field? Performances need to be upgraded or downgraded in the light of this factor. The effect of the draw should also bear on the
analysis of a race currently under review. Is the fast two-year-old well or badly drawn? You will get a lot closer to a true estimate of the chance of a two-year-old in which you are interested.
One Other factor should be considered when betting on two-year-olds. This is the time of year. The situation alters from month to month, so that a betting strategy needs to be tailored to changing circumstances very precisely. The following points should be borne in mind:
April
The new season has hardly begun and most juveniles are unknown quantities. Try to find one good two-year-old bet each day and keep stakes to an absolute minimum.
May
Form has started to settle down but there are still plenty of youngsters who have yet to show their true potential, and the going can be changeable. Stick to one bet a day with a slightly increased stake.
June
By now a fairly clear picture of the new crop of two-year-olds has emerged and summer is officially here, so there should not be too many variations in going or form. Keep to a single selection but bet with confidence.
July and August
Traditionally the best months of the year for the backer, July and August should bring really fast ground when short-priced horses monopolise the winner's enclosure. Now is the time to cash in with two or even three selections a day, backed in singles and doubles with one's maximum stake.
September
Suddenly a lot of form becomes suspect. Classy types given plenty of time as a prelude to a three-year-old campaign at a high level appear for the first time or improve by leaps and bounds. Very likely they will upset juveniles which looked good earlier in the year. Many of the latter begin to show the effects Of a long campaign, fields get more competitive and the going can change very quickly with variable weather conditions. Stakes should be dropped sharply and care must be taken not to dissipate gains from a successful spring and summer.
October
Every horse is competing for its winter training bill, fields are huge and heavy ground plays havoc with form. Long before November comes, the betting book should be closed for the year. So a fully planned programme of two-year-old betting has been mapped out. The three basic rules should provide a small number
of potential bets each day.
The final process of selection gives one plenty of scope to exercise personal skill. The Speciality System is thus interesting to work. In the hands of a careful operator, the system has all the prerequisites of a successful method of backing horses.
The Midsummer Method
This is a system for summer bets in selected non-handicaps. July and August are the backer's months. Form on the Flat has had plenty of time to settle down, and firm ground sees small fields and more predictable results than at any other time of the year. Favourites and near-favourites go in with monotonous regularity. The Midsummer method offers a sporting chance of cashing in when circumstances are most favourable to the punter.
The general percentage of winning favourites rises sharply in every kind of race during the summer months but there are a number Of categories which, according to the records, are particularly good for backers. These include maiden races for two-year-olds and non-handicaps confined to three-year-olds, of which stakes races and maidens are the two main types.
As far as two-year-old maiden races are concerned, the fact that they are restricted to non-winners means that competition is not strong. One or two horses usually stand out on what they have achieved so far and for the most part they are able to confirm their form advantage in the actual race. In this they are helped by midsummer conditions for, with the exception of mudlarks, the average thoroughbred is more reliable on fast ground than any other type of going.
Much the same reasons account for the high success rate of winning favourites in three-year-old non handicaps. Halfway through the season on firm surfaces, the form of three-year-olds works out exceptionally well. In maiden races opposition is not strong, and the fancied horses have it to themselves. Clever trainers can exploit a good three-year-old. At the smaller meetings, particularly in the north, leading yards with a monopoly of the better-bred horses have a huge advantage which results in a very high percentage of winners. As for stakes races, many of these feature class horses which, almost by definition, can be expected to run to form. So three-year-olds competing on equal terms, without the intervention of the handicapper, offer relatively easy pickings for the discerning backer of favourites.
The system bet is a daily double on market leaders in these types of race. There is plenty of racing at this time of year, usually at least three meetings a day, and probably more with evening racing, even in the middle of the week, so there will be quite a number Of possible bets from which to choose. Do not be too ambitious. On most days one or two of the supposed 'certs' will go down. Keeping to just two horses a day cuts down the risk of the unexpected, but nearly inevitable, actually happening to you. If one does make a habit of backing everything that seems to have an above-average chance on paper, one is bound to suffer from a percentage failure rate that statistics say must be within the region of 30—35 per cent at least. There is no profit in that, even if the
occasional multiple bet comes up. Rather than indulging in trebles and accumulators, it is far better to put the daily stake on just the two best bets of the day in two 2-point singles and a I-point double. Five points a day spread in this way maximise the opportunities that midsummer offers. Avoid horses likely to start at prohibitive odds and just one winner will return your daily stake a lot Of the time, and there will be plenty of days when both selections win. Most weeks you should be in profit after five or six days of systematic betting.
A punter taking advantage of favourable conditions in favoured races will not be the bookmaker's ideal customer. However, any pangs of conscience should soon disappear when the end of August comes with a handsome credit balance to testify to the wisdom of betting steadily and sensibly on the best available bets at the best time of year for backers.
The Star Choice Method
Many readers will be familiar with the Jockey Club's 'Pattern Race' classification by which the top non-handicaps for the various age groups are divided into Group One, Group Two, Group Three races according to their status and value. The Star Choice method concentrates only on the very highest echelon of Flat racing, that is, the Group One weight-for-age races run over middle distances.
Chief among these are the five Classic races — Newmarket's 2000 and 1000 Guineas, the Derby and Oaks at Epsom and finally the St Leger run at Doncaster in the autumn. Other races which fall into the elite category are four big events in July and August. They are the Eclipse Stakes (Sandown), the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Ascot), the Sussex Stakes (Goodwood) and the International Stakes (York). The Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot over 10 furlongs in June and the one-mile Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on the same course in late September are two Other well-established races which have now acquired the very highest status.
The Champion Stakes, decided at Newmarket near the end of the season, completes the cycle of the greatest races in the British calendar.
The Star Choice approach is ultra-selective and seeks to pinpoint only the best for the best. To win any one Of this sequence of top races takes a horse of the highest class. Hence the basic premise of the system.
In such races any horse which has failed to win its last two races in similar or lesser company cannot be said to have a good chance.
Think about this carefully. Spelled out like this, the idea seems self-evident but an examination of any of the top weight-for-age races shows how many runners can be eliminated. In the majority of cases most of the candidates fail to measure up to this standard. Yet if a horse has failed recently in inferior or even similar company, where is the confidence about it winning one Of the great races which bring together the best horses from the leading stables in
England, Ireland and sometimes France? If, on the other hand, we confine ourselves only to those animals which have achieved the comparatively rare feat of two recent victories in roughly the same standard of racing, then surely we have something to be on.
The Star Choice method has, therefore, only one simple rule:
In the top weight-for-age races on the Flat, back any horse which has won both its two most recent outings, provided at least one of them was a Group One, Group Two or Group Three event.
Group categories for big races are shown clearly in form books and in the form summaries that appear in the racing papers on the day of the race, so there should be no difficulty about determining qualifiers.
The formula will often single out only one horse for a big race. Sometimes two or three will qualify. The best advice is to back them all. Unlike most of the runners, these horses boast unbeaten form in approximately similar company.
Given the prestige at stake, they are sure to be trying for their lives. They are bound to go close to winning. Backing more than one in the same race is
justified to make certain of being on the right horse.
What about starting prices? 'All odds-on', I can hear the cynics saying. Not true, for opinions always take a wide range in the great races and the prices for qualifiers can extend to 10—1 and occasionally even more. Yes, there will be short-priced favourites too but, while there is no such thing as a racing certainty, records show that they are in the banker class.
The Star Choice system isolates only the cream of the bets in the top sphere of British racing. Look in racing annuals for past years and check the idea out. One will be agreeably surprised, not only by the number of winners from this system, but also by the odds sometimes freely available about them. It must be
remembered that the performance of any racehorse, even one of the very highest class, is to some extent governed by the laws of chance but these animals definitely have unrivalled potential as betting propositions.