Horse Racing - Strategy Part 2

Trainers, Creatures of Habit 

It's Important to study trainers, their methods and tendencies. The best way to do this is to focus on one specific trainer, you will soon find that, once you divine the trends of one trainer, you will quickly add further trainers to your repertoire. Some trainers are brilliant with older horses - some. excel with horses on their first run - some can produce a horse, race fit after a long lay off. There's no substitute for this knowledge, Don't be daunted by the amount of information you accumulate, as when you're studying a race, you'll have discounted most of the field, before you need to look deeply at a few individual trainers. 

Invariably, when you come to selecting a horse, information about the type of race a trainer specialises in, will prove crucial. 

You need to monitor successful gambling stables - there are certain where the value exists in - not getting what appeared to be the value. Early morning gambles that continue on the track can sometimes be worth following. Whereas, following early morning gambles blindly, is the road to the poor house. You'll soon realise that there are some stables that when the money is truly down, it's rarely left behind. 

Blinkers and Visors etc

The usual reason for applying blinkers or a visor to a horse is to concentrate its mind on running a race. Some front runners fall back through the field the moment they are headed, and blinkers are a definite aid in this instance. Blinkers also come in very handy as an excuse to the stewards when a horse improves beyond recognition, the trainer can insist that the blinkers have worked the oracle. If a horse has been off the track for quite a while and is making a re-appearance in blinkers for the first time don't be shocked to see it win at decent odds, especially if it's the charge of a tricky trainer. Blinkers are also very often an attempt to liven up a horse who has lost enthusiasm for the game. As an aid to finding winners, blinkers are not the most consistent guide. 

Tongue-straps are used to help a horse with breathing difficulties. They make a great difference. Once a tongue-strap is applied, problem horses often show dramatic improvement. 

Not So Simple Mathematics

The Bookmaker uses the illusion of fleeting value and barrow boy psychology to entice the punter. The punter has to understand that most of the figures he sees on the bookmaker's board are tantamount to a mirage. Many horses on the board don't get backed - they are notional. At the lower end of the pricing scale the bookmaker has it all in his favour. There is a spectrum favouring the punter, these are horses priced between: 5/1 and 9/1. At these prices value can be achieved - value depreciates in both directions as it drops below 5/1 and goes above 9/1. 

Personally I rarely have a bet below 3/1 and only in exceptional circumstances would I bet at 11/4. But at the far end of the spectrum I'm looking to find the right horse, because the percentages are relatively in my favour. The difference between a 1/2 horse and an evens horse is approx. 16%. The difference between a 9/1 and a 33/1 is approx. 7% in this area we have to play the bookmaker at his own game. We have to, wherever possible, look for favourites to oppose. By the sheer fact that favourites are the worst value - they create value at the other end of the scale. The shorter the price of the favourite the more value it creates in other horses. 

Value depreciates below 3/1 and becomes acute below evens. 

Interestingly, below 3/1 is the where most bets are struck (pro-rata). Therefore, for value we're looking to back bigger priced horses and have to make provision for losing runs - they are part of the game. 

Coping with losing runs is easy. You only need to do one thing - stake so well within your means that you feel no emotion at losing. The moment emotion enters the equation you can be assured you are staking too high. 

They say that the greatest tip in a tipster's armoury is the ten point maximum. With this bet he can re-coup all of his punters losses in one fell swoop. This bet is usually placed on one of those really short ones that look everything of a winner but happens to have an off day, just when it was expected to produce the goods. My reason for mentioning the ten point maximum or any other kind of maximum - be it five star, gilt edged or blue chip is to tell you to forget them all. If you can't get ahead level staking - you are going nowhere anyway. The effect of stake fluctuation on the punters psyche is devastating. It's bad enough facing inevitable losing runs without escalating your losses in the hope of getting out of trouble. 

Two Against the Field 

We now explore the taboo of having two horses running for you in the same race. If you back a loser (even staking) you lose one point. If you back another 10/1 shot in the next race and it wins you've made a profit of 10 points. If you now call it a day, you deduct one point from ten points and you've made a nine-point profit. 

For the sake of argument, let's assume that you don't call it a day, after all, you're holding nine points profit. In the next race you back two 10/1 shots having one point on each. Hallelujah! Your horses are clear of the field fighting out a finish. You don't give a damn which one wins (apart from wishing you'd done the forecast) you're ecstatic. 

You win and collect, eleven points - deduct the two points you staked and you're winning nine points. In effect you've had a 9/2 win, exactly the same as you won, backing two 10/1 shots in the first two races. 

The main reason that punters don't back two horses in a race is psychological, the thought of one loser in a race is acceptable - the thought of two is unthinkable. .

80 over 20 and the Relativity Bank 

The punter has to come to terms with losses; as they are a major factor in the equation. Losses cannot be ameliorated by each-way backing or compensated for by elaborate staking plans in an attempt to fine tune the disasters of the past with triumphs in the future. The sequence of events is random and you have to learn to live with constant uncertainty. 

For those who have been backing each-way and staking erratically for years - breaking these expensive habits is difficult. The following is a way of easing out of backing each way: Have an 80 over 20. That's an 80% win 20% place bet. 

When it comes to Staking. Stake evenly and work from a 100 point bank. i.e. If your initial bank is £1,000 each bet is £10. Simply speaking if your average bet is currently £100. you should be working from a Ten Thousand Pound Bank. This is a Relativity Bank that has a built in Feel Good factor, you're working from well within your comfort zone, runs of losses will not affect your equilibrium, and emotion will not be motivating your next move. If you're tempted to increase your stake to cover past losses, don't contemplate doing this on a horse under 5/1. If you do, you'll be playing your money straight into the bookmaker's hands.

The Reverse Book 

The Reverse Book, can only be performed on course, not in a betting shop. The bookmaker has his overheads - his pitch has a value, so whatever it's worth he's entitled to earn a regular percentage of its value. 

He has to pay the course for the pleasure of taking your money, and he has all the other attendant expenses of running a business. You in turn have your travelling expenses and you've paid to get onto the course. 

The bookmaker's expenses are never far from his mind when he decides what prices to offer you. 

We're now going to price up a race of 8 runners: .

The Reverse Book entails you making more than one selection in a race. The kind of race you're looking for ideally needs a false favourite. 

You only have to look at how many odds-on horses get beaten to realise that it's no impossible task to find one. 

The favourite in our hypothetical race (l) has been dropped into a selling race - it has one of the best jockeys in the business riding - apart from its last race a month ago, it has impeccable form; and we're always willing to forgive one bad run. The newspapers have made it a 1/2 shot and the bookmakers seem to be giving value at 4/6. Every newspaper tipster has tipped the horse apart from one, who always goes against the crowd anyway, but everybody seems to have overlooked two things. The trainer hasn't had a winner for six weeks and he also has a poor record at this track. 

You can't really separate horses B, C and D. As far as you're concerned if the favourite doesn't win, either B, C or D will. Meanwhile the punters who fancy the favourite for their lives arc thrusting their cash at the bookmakers. 

You notice that horse B is 3/1 with one Bookmaker and 4/1 with another. You've made the decision that you're going to back horses B, C and D. And B is the first you're going to tackle. Your regular bet is £l20. 

You have £60 to win on horse B. @ 4/1 (£240 to £60) 

You have £30 to win on horse C. @ 7/1 (£210 to £30) 

You have £30 to win on horse D. @ 10/1 (£300 to £30) 

Just at the off you can see that you could have done better as there was some 8/ I available on horse C. but don't worry some Of the most astute professionals back this way and they rarely get the best price all round; despite their determination. Had you backed the favourite in this race at the 4/6 offered, you would have stood to win €80. The race begins in earnest and the favourite, a confirmed front runner, does what front runners do. You're having second thoughts. Glancing around, you see that the punters all look very confident and, you can gain no comfort from the poker faces of the bookmakers who have laid the favourite. 

Seeing that we can manifest our own outcome to the race, the favourite gets beaten by a short head on the line; in the time honoured tradition of favourites that get beaten. I'll leave you to determine which of the three horses you backed won. You have played partial-bookmaker and given yourself every chance of winning, just as the bookmaker does. Of course you could have juggled your stake about on the three horses you backed to favour one. of the three, and gone for just getting your stake back on the other two. I know of many professionals who make their living by backing around the board in this way, they get value by taking the best prices offered - they make a Reverse Book and, like the bookmaker, are masters of their own destiny. Whereas the punter is more a slave to fashion - a sucker for short priced favourites. Although, many professional punters are successful making a Reverse Book, I have yet to meet a successful each-Yay backer. or for that matter a Placepot millionaire, but that's another story. By making a Reverse Book you're looking to make a percentage on the race, and in order to make that percentage you must have a fair understanding of what value the odds represent. 1 continue with another hypothetical race, this one with eleven runners and all of the odds percentages are approx. 

The make up of this race doesn't favour the Reverse Book. It's the kind of race where if you strongly fancied a big priced horse it would be a win bet. This over-round book has the first three in the betting totalling nearly 80% - the only thing that might develop here is a gamble on one of the outsiders. 

It could well be a horse that you've already ear marked. This is a race for the pragmatic; only those with years of experience should get involved here.