Horse Racing - Strategy Part 3
Three Weddings and a Funeral
The race you actually came for is the last race or the day - "The Get Out Stakes." You're convinced that the favourite is no good, notwithstanding, that he has won his last three races. The horse carries top weight today in a seven runner handicap and the five pound claimer who rode him, in large field handicaps, in his past three wins, has the ride today.
The horse who has risen steadily in the weights, has been raised a further six pounds for his last run, and because the horse is contesting a much lesser grade race than last time, he's shouldering a further eight pound burden in actual weight terms. In effect, the horse is carrying an extra Stone in lead - an extra stone in dead weight as opposed to the well balanced weight of a jockey Add to this the fact that this small but plucky horse, well suited to carrying low weights in big handicaps, will not easily shoulder the extra dead weight. His winning sequence has made him flavour ofthe month, a short priced favourite in a low grade handicap, and you're sure that this horse can be beaten.
This seven runner I mile, handicap looks to the bookmakers as if it's between the first three. You want to back horses B and C and you're hoping that the punters will come for the favourite. If they're fool enough to back in a handicap at 9/4 or less - you've decided to be as astute as the bookmakers. The punters come for the favourite backing it down to 7/4 36% of the book. ) With the utmost difficulty you secure 3/1 about B, and 5/1 about C, having £60. on each.
They're off. The favourite gets a good break and tucks itself in behind Horse B. The field strings itself out with horses D to G in alphabetical order followed by horse C, the one that you want to win. At 2 furlongs out - the two in front pull away for a ding dong battle. .
One to Oppose Next Time
You notice that the jockey on horse C, your 5/1 shot, hasn't bothered to move a muscle and you wonder if this horse is at the races today. As they hit the furlong marker, the two up front, still neck and neck, run out of steam and come back to the field.
Seeing this, the jockeys on horses D to G start shaking up their mounts, horse C who has never shown any pace in his career appears to be coming to win the race on the bridle but the favourite, as game as the proverbial bagel, makes one last lunge at the line in an attempt to deprive horse C of what appeared to be an effortless win.
The favourite lost (but only just) in actual fact it was the trainer who really lost the race and not the horse. Sentimentality had crept into the equation; the claimer who'd won on the horse three times kept the ride. Had they substituted the boy for a heavier jockey, the horse would have been carrying more jockey and less lead, and on its performance it would have won. The winner could well be a false favourite for the bookies next time out. It won by default, although it looked as if it was coming there easily and won on the bridle — this was an optical illusion. What actually happened was the rest of the field came back to him. The opposite of this situation is when a top jockey is riding at his lowest possible weight - always be alert to this positive factor. Jockey's weights appear each day in the Racing Post under seasonal statistics.
As far as we are concerned there are three kinds of races:
A. A race where we fancy a horse strongly enough to back it to win.
B. A race where we want to be with the bookmakers because their book is so biased that the value is in opposing a short priced favourite. You have to be at the track to accomplish the Reverse Book as it is dependant on shopping around for the best price possible.
C. A race where we have no opinion, and avoid as far as betting is concerned, but nevertheless, a race to watch for future reference.
I hope that I have managed to convince you that each-way betting is out of the question. If you've punted for years and are difficult to convince - I will not be surprised, as seasoned punters can be very stubborn regardless of what it costs them. There is of course the more viable alternative of backing a second horse to win.
Now we come to multiples, firstly the multiples invented by the bookmakers. Union Jacks, Goliaths etc. and many more waiting to be invented in the future.
The bookmakers call these bets "products", and be assured that they wouldn't invent a product unless it was lucrative.
A true professional, there are very few, will go to the track for one horse, win or lose, his mind will be focussed. Anyone having fun bets on specialised betting slips concocted by the bookmaker's, that are dependent on sequences of horses winning, will soon forget the true meaning of fun.
Serendipitous
Doubles, Trebles and Accumulators - You can't embark on these bets as a regular feature of your betting. But if I were to tell you to take the serendipity factor out of your life, I'd be selling you short.
I know of a few people, who have had big wins on multiple bets.
"Copped the lot" as they say in the trade. The time to go in for these multiples is at the big meetings when value is going to exist in most races. Treat multiples as a very separate entity to your regular betting, and keep your stakes to the absolute minimum, also insure you have multiples, all the talk of each-way doubles being thieving bets etc. is just talk.
Once upon a time, as all good fairy tales begin, the bookmaker's giving better value on each-way betting. At this time some shrewd punters known as each-way thieves, lined their pockets. But the bookmakers have been getting their own back ever since. The multiple isn't the most rational bet, but should you deny yourself a chance to dream and not give an Angel a chance to sit on your shoulder, your existence would be sadly diminished.
The Tracks
The tracks in the United Kingdom are one of the most consequential factors in horse racing. If your horse can't handle the track, your form study has been a wasted effort, subsequently, to ensure that you do not waste time each track has to fulfil certain criteria:
Is it a track where speed ratings matter?
Is it a track where favourites have some kind of chance?
Is it a track where favourites are more readily opposed?
Is it a track that favours the front runner?
Is it a track that favours an off the pace horse?
Is it a track that favours course and distance winners?
Is it a track where form from another track will hold up?
Is it a track that only a handful of jockeys can properly negotiate?
In effect the list is endless and the only way to be certain each day, is to completely refresh your memory about the track in question.
Before a horse satisfies track criteria it must satisfy Essential Criteria.
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