Horse Racing - Picking Winners - Part 4

Listed Races

Listed race winners are a mixture of improving horses and older animals that have been established for some time at this level. Failed Group Three horses are best avoided. The improvers are three-year-olds for the most part. They may have arrived by the handicap route or could have done well in conditions races of the better sort, but they are nearly always readily identifiable by their racecourse performances. Older horses are much more 'in and out'. They tend to win occasionally from a mixture of races in Listed company itself, a few tilts at Group Three and not infrequent pot hunting in Class B or C conditions events. It may well be extremely difficult to tell from the form book when their time to win is due. However, in medium-sized fields particularly, the betting forecast is a fair guide. More than in Group Three races, the first three in the betting forecast account for the majority of winners but favourites have only an average record, judged by the criterion of profit and loss at level stakes. To bet confidently in Listed races calls for a specialist in this area of competition. 

Horses from Listed company dropping into handicaps are not automatic winners. They will receive no concession in the weights from the handicapper and need everything in their favour to succeed. 

16 Criterion 9 - Conditions Races

This group of races makes up the entire non-handicap racing programme below Listed class. It consists of events actually called 'conditions' races, classified stakes in which only horses whose official rating does not exceed a specified figure may compete, auction races, selling races and those events restricted to apprentice or amateur riders. Maiden races are another large group of non-handicaps and these will be dealt with separately. It is also possible to combine some of two types of race in one, a device which is sometimes employed by racecourse executives to add variety to their cards. For the purposes of betting, the student of form should draw a clear distinction between the relatively small number of races labelled 'conditions' events and the rest. 

'Conditions' races are •open' races, entry for which is not restricted in any of the ways that define the composition of other kinds of non-handicap. They are the best class of non-handicap below Listed events and are graded B to D. Featuring only animals of some ability in the main, form works out extremely well in them. Favourites have an above-average record — in the region of 50 per cent win. Consequently, since they were introduced in 1993, a number of systems exploiting this high percentage of winners with various staking plans have appeared. 

The other types of non-handicap are a mixture of events competed for by inferior animals. On the whole, form is unreliable and the backer should proceed carefully. From time to time circumstances throw up a runner with an apparently excellent chance on form that has the appearance of a banker. But starting prices are unlikely to be generous and as with all horses of inferior class, however outstanding in relation to the opposition, reproduction of known form cannot be taken on trust. The added complication of an indifferent ride from an apprentice or amateur jockey adds to the need for caution in those races restricted to this kind of assistance from the saddle. 

On the whole, whereas conditions races, especially of classes B and are a sound medium for form readers in which to bet, the backer should not habitually bet in non-handicaps below that standard. The risks are too great relative to the possible rewards. 

17 Criterion 10 - Maiden Races

Usually restricted to three-year-olds but occasionally open to older horses as well, almost by definition these races feature animals with unexposed form. Horses that have never run but which may be capable of winning are an additional complicating factor. A measure of caution is therefore needed in maiden races, both in regard to betting in a race itself and to drawing form conclusions for the future from it. 

Since a few top yards tend to 'farm' all classes of maiden race because of the superior ability of the animals generally at their disposal, the name of the trainer of a runner is usually more important than anything it has accomplished so far on the racecourse. This is particularly true of southern and Newmarket based raiders operating on northern tracks. Where a horse trained by a top handler has put up at least one promising racecourse performance, may be a sound case for a good bet. Even on some of the smaller tracks in the north, opinions can take a wide range in maiden events, and starting prices for raiders from the most fashionable stables, many of which do not bet, can be worthwhile. 

Note also maidens from the big Newmarket stables that are described as 'backward' or 'bit backward' on their initial racecourse run. The chances are that the horse will be a very different proposition next time out and may be something to bet on. Other significant comments in the official form book on the running of maidens are 'scope' or 'good sort'. Again, a horse so labelled from a big yard is almost certainly bound to improve rapidly and put its initial, warm-up run well behind it next time out.

Backers should also be aware of another factor that applies particularly in maiden races, namely that it is very bad policy to back a maiden filly to beat maiden colts. No filly's form should be taken at face value at least until she has got her head in front at the business end of a race. Even in races confined to fillies, maidens are not generally trustworthy racing machines. Paradoxically, fillies of the very top class are arguably the most reliable of all thoroughbreds on the racecourse, but in maiden races if you never back a filly you will probably be the richer for it in the long run.

19 Criterion 12 - Claiming Races

Claiming races, or 'claimers', are near the bottom of the scale in terms of the overall racing programme, being ranked only marginally superior to sellers and races for apprentice and amateur riders. Officially non-handicaps, in reality they are a sort of half-way house between handicaps and non-handicaps. Their non-handicap status is confirmed if, as sometimes happens, one or just a small number of horses stand out when the weights are compared with the official ratings for themselves and their rivals. The difference is that in a claimer, trainers nominate the sum of money for which horses can be 'claimed' by someone else, though this right is seldom exercised. This gives the horse a handicap mark and determines the weight to be carried — hence the divergence with the Jockey Club handicapper's official assessments. 

In the US such races and variants of them are much more plentiful, presumably because Americans dislike the power of the official handicapper to influence results, connections preferring to rely on their own estimates Of their charges' ability to determine how they are placed in races. Claiming races are contested by horses of most classes, with very good horses sometimes competing for rich purses. The racing culture of the US is very different to that of the UK, however, in this country, claimers were introduced to add interest to the racing scene but, in fact, they are not popular with punters and most trainers. They are invariably contested by poorer quality animals which connections are prepared to risk losing. Quite often there has been some physical or other training difficulty. Most fields for claiming events include a few downright bad horses of selling-plate class. For these reasons it usually pays to follow a simple rule which more often than not will separate out the 'quick' from the 'dead': 

Ignore the bottom third of the field in the weights completely and examine most closely the top third. Horses in the middle of the weights can go either way in terms of the overall class of the race. A study of the official ratings, which are published in the racing press (but not in daily newspapers), may reveal the tendency of the middle zone. 

Where a horse that is the 'spot horse' of a published private handicap or of newspaper race ratings also emerges as 'best in' when the weights are compared with the official ratings, it is a runner which, on form, should win.

Claimers are usually won by one of the first three in the betting forecast. 

20 Criterion 13 - Fitness

A vital factor in determining whether a horse can win is its current state of fitness. In a non-handicap a horse's fitness can be more-or-less taken on trust once the season has passed its initial, opening phase. Unraced two-year-olds and three-year-olds which may be given an educational run are the obvious exceptions. In handicaps, on the other hand, probably no other single factor influences results so much. 

The reason is that many horses are raced in handicaps when not at their absolute peak in order to secure a favourable handicap mark that will enable them to succeed when they are finally trained 'to the minute'. Whether a handicapper is 'off' or 'not off' in today's race can sometimes, but by no means always, be inferred from a study of the dates of its races in relation to how they ran in them. 

Look out for the horse that begins to improve early in the season after a poor run or two. Similarly once a horse's season is reasonably advanced it may be given a rest at some point to recuperate. Again, look for much improved form following a mid-season lay-off of about a month or slightly more. The horse will have been 'let down' and then gradually brought back to its peak. It could soon be in the winner's enclosure.

A further clue to a horse's readiness to win a handicap can be gained by examining the distances over which it has been running. Every horse has an optimum trip and in the case of all but unexposed three-year-olds the form book usually provides the necessary information. The official handicapper is probably aware that a horse is not doing itself justice because it is running over a distance either too long or too short for it but the unwritten rules of the game say that the horse should be dropped in the weights after several poor runs. When an animal has had two or three races at the 'wrong' distance and is suddenly put back to its best distance, this can be taken as a strong clue that its trainer is finally satisfied with its handicap rating. Then it becomes a trier with a real chance of winning.

There are other important points about fitness which must be noted by the form reader: 

1 Generally speaking, any Flat horse which has not run for about 28 days or more has a slight question mark about its fitness in a handicap. 

2 The time lapse that will return a horse fit and well to the racecourse after a rest is related to the distance of the races in which it competes. Sprinters can reappear within a few days with no loss of form. Stayers need much longer to recuperate. "two-year-olds should have a lay-off of at least 10 days if they are not to be damaged. 

3 There are exceptions, but horses in general hold their form for no longer than a month. After that some deterioration from the peak of well-being is to be expected. The start of a fresh 'form wave' can sometimes be detected from a close study of the form book, as explained above. 

4 A gradual rise in the level of a horse's form is usually more reliable than sudden and spectacular improvement from one race to another. 

Be wary of a horse that runs really well after a long absence. It quite often fails to reproduce the form next time out. In this respect the top trainers make fewer mistakes than their less fashionable counterparts. They have the luxury of time on their side, whereas the average handler is subject to pressures which may prevent him or her from preparing the horse in the best possible way. Connections want to see their horse run and trainers need cash flow, even if it only comes from place money in small races. The result is that horses may be rushed in a way that top yards, with wealthy owners having lots of horses, can avoid. Even so, any horse coming back with a big run after a long rest is not certain to go on, whoever trains it. 

21 Criterion 14 - The Going

Next to fitness, the going preference of individual horses is the single most important factor in determining whether they will show their best form on the racecourse. A liking for a particular type of going can improve a horse by many pounds. Conversely, dislike of the prevailing ground conditions, if pronounced enough, can ruin a horse's chance of winning a race completely. 

Most horses like one type of ground — somewhere between firm and heavy — and dislike the opposite. There are, however, a minority of horses that are equally effective on any going. Good going is neutral in the sense that, whatever their preferences, all horses will run reasonably well on it. 

In terms of the conformation of the thoroughbred a few observations here may help the racing enthusiast who combines form with paddock study and race-reading. A horse with a rounded action, particularly at the forelegs, will most likely have a preference for some give in the ground. Sharp-actioned horses tend to need fast ground. Big, heavy topped animals will be happiest on softish going because its reduces the pressure on their forelegs. Horses that dislike firm ground tend to dislike running downhill. 

The conformation of a racehorse is the study of a lifetime, and compressing observations about ground preferences and physical build of a horse into one small paragraph will perhaps have done no real favours. Fortunately, however, once a horse has raced a few times, its going predilections can usually be 
divined from the form book. In the absence of clues from the form record, a horse's breeding is frequently indicative of its preferences, and here it is the sire and not the dam which, nearly always, is the determining influence.

There are three other major points which the backer should keep in mind about the going: 

I Heavy ground generally favours front-running horses. 

2 When the ground is fast, favourites and form horses tend to win. When it is soft, form is suspect and heavy conditions usually see more outsiders winning than usual. Therefore wise backers adjust their stakes when extremes of going prevail. 

3 Do not put much faith for the future in form achieved on heavy ground, unless there is a long spell of wet weather, as there sometimes is in the autumn. 

22 Criterion 15 – The Effect Of The Draw

In all kinds of race up to a distance of a mile, and occasionally even further, the draw has an influence on the outcome of races at some courses, although the degree of influence can vary even on the same course due to the position of the starting stalls, going conditions, jockeys' tactics, and so on. On a small number of courses the draw has the same effect whatever conditions prevail on the day. In big fields especially, the draw can make an immense difference to results, even to the point where some horses badly drawn 'may just as well have stayed at home', as the saying goes in racing circles. 

Despite all the evidence there are some punters who do not trouble themselves with this vital factor. This is folly. The result of the Temple Stakes run over five furlongs at Sandown in May 2000 provides a good example. The going was heavy and it was known in advance that high numbers were likely to be favoured. However, in a field of only 10 runners, backers ignored the known effect of the draw and made Sampower Star, drawn on the outside at 3, favourite for the race. 

The result was as follows: 

Another example of just how potent an influence the draw can be is taken from the Beverley meeting of Saturday, 24 August 2002. High numbers on the straight course at the Yorkshire track are known to be heavily favoured, and the following race is just one of the many that could have been chosen from any flat season to illustrate the point. 

23 Criterion 16 - Breeding

Genetic influences in thoroughbred racehorses are very strong. One influence is that a stallion transmits its going preference to its progeny, although there are many sires who have no really pronounced preference and transmit none to their progeny. 

The progeny of a sire with a distinct preference for soft going are certainly capable of winning on firm, although this is the less likely of the two scenarios. Similarly, it is not impossible for an animal by a sire who is known to prefer firm to win on soft ground. For the strength and class of the opposition are obviously important factors, at least as far as an individual race is concerned, and these. 

On the other hand, it is fair to say that horses by the sires who prefer firm' will, in all probability, prefer firm and will usually, but not necessarily, dislike its opposite of soft. Progeny from sires who prefer 'soft' may well dislike firm, but positively love soft, though here again the positive emphasis does not imply a corresponding negative as an infallible rule. The fact remains that most horses prefer one or other of the types of ground, but it is also true that horses with a marked preference will, like any other, act perfectly well on good going. 

It may be that some newcomers to racing will not treat this with the respect it undoubtedly deserves. 'Surely,' the tyro might argue, •something as particular as a liking for one kind of going or a dislike for another is so individual to each horse that its parentage has little to do with it?' In fact, though nothing of this sort is ever absolutely true in racing, a stallion's influence in that respect is one of the most solid rules in the entire sport for, by and large, a thoroughbred tends to take its physical characteristics from its sire. The form book is the best guide to a distinct preference for the prevailing ground, or a dislike of it but, faced with a horse unexposed on an extreme of going, one can be remarkably 'clued up' as to whether it will be able to produce its best form on it, while other punters are merely stumbling about in the dark. 

Two-year-olds only have a limited amount of racing and in their case stallion influence can be a very useful factor in forming judgements, in default of definite evidence from the form book.